Hobonichi (3560)

Signal panel

Investment thesis

1. The planner is a growing global franchise. The 2026 edition sold a record 1.14m copies, about 100 times the 12,000 of the 2001 first edition. Planner sales reached ¥7.95bn, with ¥3.38bn domestic and ¥4.57bn overseas (57.5%) (FY 短信 p.5, printed 3). In the nine months to May, overseas planner sales grew 36.0% and domestic 18.7% (Q3 短信 p.4, printed 2). Reported fact.
2. Mix is lifting margins structurally. The planner cost ratio fell to 31.6%, and the overall cost-of-sales ratio fell to 38.3% from 43.0%. The drivers were low-cost overseas direct channels and fewer write-downs, helped by real-time inventory data (FY 短信 p.6, printed 4). Gross margin rose to 61.7% from 57.0% (FY 短信 p.4, printed 2). Reported fact.
3. Wholesale demand for the next edition stepped up. Orders for the 2027 edition, which began shipping to wholesalers in August 2026, rose 30.9% domestically and 108.2% overseas. This drove the 2026-09-17 revision (Kabutan, 2026-09-17). Reported fact (company notice, via secondary summary).
4. The new guide implies continued growth. For the 10 months to June 2027, the company guides sales of ¥10.5bn (+23.3%), OP ¥1.17bn (+19.6%) and RP ¥1.17bn (+17.4%). These compare with the same 10 months a year earlier (FY 短信 p.9, printed 7). Company guidance.
5. The stock is cheap against peers with lower returns. Trailing PER is 14.1x and EV/EBIT about 8.7x (inference: ¥11.48bn market cap, less ¥1.31bn cash and ¥0.50bn investment securities, over ¥1.11bn OP). Stationery peers trade at 15.8–20.9x company-forecast PER with ROE of 4–8.5% (Yahoo! Finance Japan, 2026-10-16). Inference.

Business and earnings

Hobonichi is a content company founded by copywriter Shigesato Itoi. It runs the daily website 「ほぼ日」 (since 1998), the video service 「ほぼ日の學校」, the Shibuya PARCO venue 「ほぼ日曜日」, the 「生活のたのしみ展」 festival and other venues. Commercially, it sells the Hobonichi Techo planner (74% of FY2026 sales), its covers and accessories, and other lifestyle goods (¥1.93bn) (FY 短信 p.4–6). It reports a single segment. Channels are its own online store, Amazon (Japan and overseas), Rakuten, and domestic and overseas wholesale. In FY2025, the last year with region data, 40% of sales were overseas: the US 24.1%, China 3.3%, other 12.8% (fact sheet). A US subsidiary, Hobonichi Inc., was consolidated for the first time in FY2026 (FY 短信 p.2).

Seasonality is extreme. The planner launches on 1 September and the spring edition on 1 February. Q1 (Sep–Nov) earns most of the year's profit: OP ¥1,094m in FY2026. Q3 (Mar–May) and June are loss-making. Wholesale shipments of the next edition land in August. Like-for-like reference figures (FY 短信 p.9, printed 7, and Q3 短信 p.4, printed 2) give this split for FY2026:

June and Jul–Aug are inferences from the 10-month reference and the 9-month actuals. The weak-looking Q3 (sales −14.1%) is a timing effect: the 生活のたのしみ展 festival moved from Q2 to June (Q4), and the prior year had a one-off clearance sale (Q3 短信 p.5, printed 3).

One-offs: FY2026 SG&A included warehouse-relocation costs and tariffs on overseas direct sales after the US and EU tightened de minimis rules (FY 短信 p.6, printed 4). Neither is quantified (unknown). The SG&A ratio rose to 51.3% from 49.9%.

Forecast test

Guidance history for FY2026/08: the initial guide was sales ¥9.5bn, OP ¥680m, RP ¥680m, NP ¥480m, on a standalone basis. On 2026-09-17, after the year ended, it was raised to sales ¥10,726m, OP ¥1,114m, RP ¥1,137m and NP ¥740m on a consolidated basis (Kabutan, 2026-09-17). Actuals were sales ¥10,722m, OP ¥1,112m and NP ¥814m. The fact sheet records ¥1,114m as the "initial" guide because IFIS keeps only the consolidated series. Its 99.8% progress and the progress-ahead-* flags compare the actual with a guide set after the period ended. They carry no information.

Track record (actual OP vs initial guide): 2021 −29.6%, 2022 −8.3%, 2023 +68.3%, 2024 −17.1%, 2025 −18.9%, 2026 +63.5% (against the ¥680m standalone guide). Management is not a habitual sandbagger. Its guides are often too high, with two large upside surprises. Treat the FY2027/06 guide as a central case, not a floor.

FY2027/06 guide (10 months, Sep 2026–Jun 2027): sales ¥10.5bn, OP ¥1.17bn, NP ¥820m, EPS ¥353.25. Against the ¥8,515m sales and ¥978m OP of Sep 2025–Jun 2026, that is +23.3% and +19.6% (FY 短信 p.9, printed 7). The OP margin dips to 11.1% from 11.5% like-for-like. That is consistent with new costs: the first flagship store, at Gransta Tokyo in Tokyo Station, opened in September 2026, plus US expansion. The guide needs the 2027 edition to sell through at retail as strongly as the August sell-in suggests. Domestic +30.9% and overseas +108.2% orders support it, but orders are not consumer demand.

Consensus: none. The IFIS consensus fields are empty.

Seasonal progress: Not assessable until Q1 (Sep–Nov). Q1 OP was 1.38x full-year OP in FY2025 (¥849m against ¥616m) and 0.98x in FY2026 (¥1,094m against ¥1,112m).

Revision probability: Medium. The order data point up. The guide record points to risk. Q1 decides it.

EPS and PER basis: IFIS's company-forecast PER of 11.67x annualises the 10-month EPS of ¥353 (×12/10). That overstates earnings, because the two excluded months (Jul–Aug) were only marginally profitable last year (OP about ¥134m). A fairer 12-month-equivalent EPS is about ¥390–400 (inference: the guide plus about ¥100m NP for Jul–Aug), which gives a PER of about 12.5x.

Financial strength and capital allocation

• Balance sheet (2026-08-31, FY 短信 p.7 and p.11): cash ¥1,311m, no borrowings, investment securities ¥499m, equity ratio 68.4%, current ratio 2.46 (¥5,781m / ¥2,349m). Gates pass.
• Cash conversion: OCF has been positive every year since FY2021 (¥466m, ¥201m, ¥162m, ¥401m, ¥158m, then ¥1,309m). OCF/NP was weak at 0.35–0.39 in FY2023 and FY2025, but recovered to 1.61 in FY2026. FCF was negative in FY2022–FY2025 because of software and system spending (FCF = OCF + ICF), and was positive at ¥770m in FY2026.
• Working capital (amber flag): receivables grew 45.8% (¥1,407m to ¥2,051m) against sales growth of 23.6%. The company attributes it to the larger August wholesale shipments (FY 短信 p.8, printed 6). Inventory fell ¥333m to ¥2,209m, and inventory days fell to 196 from 256. Receivables should normalise by Q1. If they do not, it is the first sign of sell-in outrunning sell-through. Bad-debt provisions are trivial (¥0.6m). The returns policy for wholesale is not disclosed (unknown).
• Capital efficiency: ROE rose from 5.4% (FY2022) to 9.5% (FY2025) and 15.6% (FY2026, IFIS; 14.6% on ending equity in the 短信). ROA rose to 10.8%, and IFIS ROIC is 14.2%. Margin did most of it: the net margin rose to 7.6% from 5.2%. Asset turnover rose modestly to 1.32, and leverage is minimal (assets ÷ equity of 1.46). Against an assumed cost of equity of 8–9% (analyst assumption), FY2026 is the first year with a clear spread. ROE of 9–10% before that was roughly at the cost of capital. No ROE or ROIC target and no medium-term plan were found (unknown).
• Peers (Yahoo! Finance Japan, 2026-10-16, actual ROE): Kokuyo 8.4%, Pilot 8.5%, King Jim 4.0%.
• Returns: DPS was ¥45 (FY2022–24), ¥90 (FY2025), ¥100 (FY2026), and ¥110 is forecast for the 10-month FY2027/06, a 31.1% payout (FY 短信 p.1). The policy is "stable dividends, set with reference to cash flow" (p.9, printed 7). There are no buybacks and no DOE or payout target. Retained cash goes to content, overseas expansion and IT. That suits a growth company, but net cash plus securities of ¥1.8bn (16% of market cap) is idle.
• Governance: The founder, Shigesato Itoi, remains central to the brand. The CEO is 小泉絢子 (COO title). A correction to the fiscal-year-change notice was filed on 2026-10-14 (Kabutan). It is administrative; the content was not checked. The 短信 states 修正再表示: 無 (no restatement) (FY 短信 p.2).

IR and management credibility

• Ongoing: consistent disclosure of copies sold, domestic and overseas planner sales, and planner versus non-planner cost ratios in each 短信.
• 2025-10: US subsidiary announced. Business started in January 2026.
• 2025-10-15: Hobonichi Techo app launched (FY 短信 p.5, printed 3).
• 2026-09-17: moved to consolidated reporting, announced the fiscal-year change to June, and raised the FY2026 guide after period-end (Kabutan).
• 2026-10-14: results, a 10-month guide with a like-for-like reference table (good practice), and a dividend increase. A 決算説明会 for institutions was held, but its materials are not in the snapshot.
• Promise vs delivery: initial OP guides missed by 8–30% in four of six years. The FY2026 beat depended on August wholesale timing. The reason for the June year-end was not found (unknown). An inference is that it moves the August wholesale shipment to the start of the year, which would make annual guidance cleaner.

Valuation and scenarios

The value basis is 12-month-equivalent EPS for Sep 2026–Aug 2027 (inference: the 10-month guide plus Jul–Aug 2027). Shares are 2.32m (FY 短信 p.2).

With weights of 25/50/25, the expected value is about ¥5,820, or +18% plus a 2.2% yield.

Bands: PBR is 2.06x against a band mean of 1.86x (z +1.25, +2σ at 2.18x). It is high against the stock's own history, but that history was set when ROE was 5–10%. At 15.6% ROE, a PBR of 2.1x is undemanding. There is no PER band (no consensus). EV/EBITDA is 6.5x on the forecast (IFIS).

What the price implies: at 12.5x 12-month-equivalent EPS, ¥4,945 discounts roughly flat earnings, or a moderate guide miss, at a peer-average multiple. On FY2026 actual EPS of ¥351 at 14x, it already prices out the 10-month growth.

Why the market may be right: a single product earns 74% of sales. A 108% jump in overseas wholesale orders can be one-time pipeline fill for new doors. Management's guides have been wrong more often than right. The founder is key to the brand. The stock is illiquid (¥17.7m traded on 2026-10-16, against a ¥11.5bn market cap), which deters institutions and justifies some discount. The shares are already up 48% in a year and fell 4% after results (¥5,160 on 2026-10-14 to ¥4,945 on 2026-10-16).

Bull case

• The 2027 edition outsells 1.14m copies. Overseas direct and wholesale keep compounding at 30% or more, and the cost ratio stays below 32%.
• The Tokyo Station flagship and the app widen the customer base. Non-planner goods recover from FY2026's timing dip.
• The June year-end, cleaner disclosure and a first ROE or capital-return policy attract wider coverage.
• Idle cash (¥1.8bn including securities) goes to a buyback or a higher payout.

Bear case

• The August 2026 sell-in exceeds sell-through. Re-orders fall in Q1, receivables stay high, and returns or markdowns follow in FY2027/06.
• Tariffs and de minimis changes in the US and EU raise the cost of direct cross-border sales (cited in FY 短信 p.6, printed 4). Yen strength reduces the value of overseas sales (57.5% of planner sales).
• Collaboration-driven demand (ONE PIECE, Tamagotchi, Detective Conan) fades.
• The guide misses as in FY2024–25, and the multiple compresses to about 11x.

Catalysts

What would change the rating

• Raise confidence if Q1 OP is at or above ¥1.2bn (+10% on ¥1,094m) and receivables fall back below ¥1.5bn.
• Downgrade to Hold if Q1 OP is below last year's ¥1,094m or receivables stay above ¥2bn at 2026-11-30. Also downgrade if the price rises above about ¥6,000 without better evidence.
• Thesis invalidated if copies sold for the 2027 edition fall below 1.14m, or the company cuts the 10-month guide.

Monitoring

Scorecard

The total is in the Buy band, consistent with the rating. Confidence is Low because the central evidence (sell-through) arrives only in January 2027.

Fact-sheet flags

Computed by factsheet.mjs. Each flag is a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

• iinfonet-cash Net cash of 1,311 in 2026/08 (BS_NET_DEBT -1,311)
• iinfoguidance-after-period-end 2026/08 guidance was first announced on 2026-09-17, after the period ended on 2026-08-31; actual vs initial guidance is not measurable for that year
• iinfocomparability 2026/08 basis-change (standalone to consolidated); growth rates across it are not comparable

Sources and limitations

• filings/2026-08_Q3_短信_20260710.pdf: 9-month results, p.4–5 (printed 2–3). Standalone.
• Kabutan, 2026-09-17: "ほぼ日、前期経常を67％上方修正", the FY2026 revision and 2027-edition order growth. Secondary summary of the company notice.
• filings/2026-08_FY_短信_20261014.pdf: p.1–2 summary, guidance and dividend; p.4–6 (printed 2–4) commentary; p.7–8 BS and CF commentary; p.9 (printed 7) outlook and like-for-like reference; p.11 BS.
• Kabutan news list for 3560, 2026-10-14 items (fiscal-year change, dividend increase, correction notice).
• IFIS snapshot data/3560/2026-10-17/: fact sheet, overview (price, volume).
• Yahoo! Finance Japan, 2026-10-16: Kokuyo 7984, King Jim 7962, Pilot 7846. Company-forecast PER and actual PBR and ROE.
• Limitations:
• IFIS feeds segment_4q and treasury_stock returned HTTP 403.
• No 説明会 deck in the snapshot.
• FY2026 is the first consolidated year, so the year-on-year comparisons use the standalone FY2025.
• The fact sheet's FY2026 guidance and progress rows reflect a guide set after period-end.
• The 有報 is not yet filed (due 2026-11-27), so major shareholders, risk factors and the reason for the June year-end are unknown.
• The peers are larger and lower-growth, so the comparison is rough.
• This is research, not individualised investment advice.