FUJI Corporation (6134)

Signal panel

Investment thesis

1. Orders are running far ahead of guidance. Q1 orders were ¥85,784m (+96.6% YoY), a book-to-bill of 1.42, and backlog reached ¥90,320m against ¥65,133m at March and ¥40,465m a year earlier (Q1 短信 p.11, printed p.9). Full-year order guidance of ¥256,000m leaves ¥170bn for Q2 to Q4, or ¥56.7bn a quarter, below every quarter since FY2026/03 Q3 (Q1 説明会 p.15, p.26). Inference: the guide assumes a sharp order slowdown that no data yet shows.
2. The H2 profit guide is below the Q1 run rate. H1 OP guide ¥32,500m implies Q2 OP of ¥17.3bn. The full-year ¥60,000m then leaves H2 at ¥27.5bn, or ¥13.75bn a quarter against ¥15.2bn in Q1 (Q1 短信 p.1). Q1's 25.1% margin came from volume (+¥5.6bn), the switch to NXTR alone (+¥7.0bn) and regional mix, not from one-offs (Q1 説明会 p.6). The NXTR gain is structural.
3. Guidance is habitually conservative in upcycles. Actual OP beat initial guidance by +143% (FY2021), +73% (FY2022) and +63% (FY2026), and missed by 35% in the FY2024 downturn (fact sheet, guidance track record). The guide has already been raised once (2026-08-03: OP ¥43.6bn to ¥60.0bn).
4. The industry confirms it. ASMPT's Q2 2026 bookings were HK$7.08bn, up 97.6% YoY, with record SMT bookings (ASMPT Q2 2026 release). This matches FUJI's +96.6%. External source.
5. Valuation is cheap against the stock's own band, and the dividend has upside. Forward PER is 14.43 against a one-year mean of 17.71 (z −1.18), and PBR is 2.54 against a 2.80 mean (fact sheet). The policy is a payout of about 50% (FY 短信 p.4, printed p.2). The ¥190 DPS was set against the initial NP of ¥33bn, which is 38% of the raised EPS of ¥500.5. A 50% payout on current guidance is about ¥250.

Business and earnings

Robot Solutions is 96.8% of Q1 sales and all of the profit: ¥58.6bn in sales and ¥16.5bn in segment OP, a 28.2% margin. Machine Tools lost ¥184m on sales of ¥1.35bn (Q1 短信 p.10, printed p.8). FUJI makes SMT placement machines (mounters) for EMS firms and electronics makers. It develops its own motors, servos and image processing, holds more than 7,000 patents, and says it is in the global top tier of a mounter market worth more than ¥400bn (Q1 説明会 p.25). The Fasford subsidiary adds die bonders for memory.

• Customers by industry (FY2026/03 Robot Solutions sales): server 15%, communications 15%, auto 13%, semis (FUJI) 11%, computer 9%, power supplies 9%, Fasford 7%, other 21% (FY 説明会 data shown on Q1 説明会 p.25). In Q1, smartphones and autos grew alongside AI servers (Q1 説明会 p.10).
• Regions (Q1): China 29.2%, other Asia 27.5%, North America 17.6% (up from 9.7%), Thailand 14.1%, Japan 5.1% (Q1 短信 p.12). The largest customer is American Tec (a China distributor), with ¥21.7bn, or 12% of FY2026/03 sales (有報 p.90).
• Cyclicality: OP fell from ¥27.1bn to ¥13.4bn in FY2024/03 when smartphone and China capex turned down. Orders bottomed at ¥24.8bn a quarter in FY2025/03 Q1 (Q1 説明会 p.26). This is a high-beta capex business.
• Capital intensity is light. Capex/depreciation is 1.1 to 1.5, and R&D is 4.7% to 6.5% of sales (fact sheet).
• One-offs: FY2026/03 NP of ¥15.7bn includes a ¥9,691m impairment on Fasford goodwill and acquired intangibles, recognised in Q4 (Q4 standalone NP was −¥339m). Before it, NP was about ¥25bn (統合 p.18). Q1 FY2027 NP includes a ¥2,046m gain on investment securities (Q1 短信 p.7).

Forecast test

• Progress against the revised guide is in line with the seasonal norm, so it gives no sign either way. The case rests on orders and on the shape of H2, not on progress.
• Four analysts cover the stock, all rated Buy (5.0). Consensus OP rose 29.3% in three months but still sits 7.6% below guidance. Broker targets set after Q1 are ¥10,000 to ¥12,000 (report_topix, 2026-08-04 to 09-01). The consensus target of ¥8,675 probably includes older, lower targets. Inference.
• One-offs in guidance: RP ¥61.1bn is close to OP ¥60.0bn, so the non-operating items are small. NP of ¥44.0bn is 72% of RP, which suggests the Q1 securities gain (about ¥1.4bn after tax) is included. EPS without it is about ¥485, a PER of 14.5.
• Orders and backlog: Robot Solutions orders ¥82,841m (+104%), backlog ¥85,877m (+142.5% YoY). The year-end backlog guide of ¥73,660m is still 19.5% above March (Q1 説明会 p.8, p.16). If Q2 to Q4 orders run at ¥65bn a quarter (the FY2026/03 Q4 level, still 24% below Q1), sales and OP beat guidance by roughly 5% to 10%. Inference.
• What would change the revision probability: Q2 orders below ¥60bn, or management describing pull-forward or double ordering.

Financial strength and capital allocation

• Net cash of ¥62.8bn in deposits at 2026-06-30, plus ¥24.0bn of investment securities. No interest-bearing debt. Equity ratio 83.4% (Q1 短信 p.6, printed p.4).
• Cash conversion: OCF/NP was 0.58 in FY2026/03 (OCF ¥9.2bn). Receivables rose ¥30.5bn and inventory ¥10.9bn (FY 短信 p.5, printed p.3). This is the amber receivables-outpacing-sales flag. The CFO attributes it to growth and pre-buying of parts, and says it is not structural (統合 p.20). Q1 supports that: deposits rose ¥9.1bn while receivables rose only ¥2.2bn on ¥60.6bn of sales. OCF was positive in every year. Gate passes.
• ROE: 7.0% (FY2026/03) = NP margin 8.7% × asset turnover 0.65 × leverage 1.20. The guide implies about 18%, almost all from margin. Company targets: ROE 11% or more in FY2027/03, against a stated cost of equity of 9–10% (統合 p.19). IFIS ROIC (its own definition) is 8.8%. A balance sheet with 83% equity is the remaining drag on capital efficiency.
• Returns: The FY2027/03 plan names a ¥10bn buyback "機動的に" (FY 説明会 p.21). No buyback resolution appears in the disclosures through 2026-10-16 (stock_index event markers). The medium-term plan targets ¥47bn of total returns over three years; ¥24.4bn was delivered by FY2026/03 (FY 説明会 p.22). The target for cutting cross-shareholdings (¥7bn) was beaten with ¥8bn. ¥18.8bn of listed cross-shareholdings remains across 20 names (有報 p.47).
• M&A record: Fasford (2018) was written down by ¥9.7bn. The plan reserves ¥25bn for new fields including M&A, and allows leverage (FY 説明会 p.22). This is a capital-allocation risk.
• Peers (company-forecast PER, actual PBR, Yahoo! Finance Japan, 2026-10-16): TOWA (6315) 23.2x / 2.15x. Shibaura Mechatronics (6590) 20.1x / 4.45x. ASMPT has no reliable dated figure; one broker values it at 35x 2027 EPS. FUJI at 14.0x / 2.54x is the cheapest of this AI-equipment group. Peers are imperfect. ASMPT is the only pure SMT rival listed, and Yamaha Motor's mounter business is too small within the group to compare.

Hard gates: no accounting-integrity issue (Q1 短信 p.2: no restatement). Liquidity is ample (current ratio 4.4). OCF was positive in all years. The theme exposure has numbers behind it (server, computer and semis at 42% of Robot Solutions sales). Progress was read against the seasonal baseline. All pass.

IR and management credibility

• FY2023/03 onward: quarterly orders, sales, backlog and OP by segment in each 説明会 (Q1 説明会 p.26). Industry and model mix by quarter.
• 2025/2026: integrated report with a CFO message on cost of equity (CAPM, 9–10%), a PBR history, and a direct explanation of the OCF drop (統合 p.19–20).
• Medium-term plan 2026: sales target ¥180bn met a year early. The ROE target was raised from 10% to 11% or more. FY2027 guidance of ¥244bn sales and ¥60bn OP far exceeds the plan (FY 説明会 p.18, p.21).
• Against it: the 2018 Fasford acquisition was impaired in FY2026/03 Q4. The NP miss against the in-year plan was announced the same day as results (2026-05-14).

Valuation and scenarios

Share count net of treasury stock is 87.9m (Q1 短信 p.2). BPS is about ¥2,762 at June.

Probability-weighted at 25/50/25: about +18%, plus a 2.7% yield. All cases are inference. Consensus FY2028/03 is an external estimate.

• What the price implies: At ¥7,011 and the band-mean PER of 17.7x, the price justifies EPS of about ¥396, roughly 20% below this year's guide. The market is already pricing some fall in earnings after the peak.
• EV/EBITDA is 9.0x on the forecast (IFIS). EV/OP on guidance is about 8.8x (market cap ¥616bn, less ¥63bn of cash and ¥24bn of securities).
• Why the market may be right: margins are at a record by six points, the 1-year return is +151%, and AI-capex sentiment is turning (15 October: SOX −4%+, Advantest −15%, FUJI −13%). Mounters lead electronics capex both up and down.

Bull case

• Q2 orders hold at ¥70bn or more, and guidance is raised again in November, with the dividend lifted toward ¥250.
• The ¥10bn buyback is executed near current prices, about 1.6% of shares.
• A new medium-term plan (expected around May 2027) sets ROE above 15% and lowers excess cash.

Bear case

• Q1 orders included pull-forward ahead of tariffs or capacity. Book-to-bill falls below 1.0 by H2.
• The AI-server capex digestion that the market fears on 15 October arrives in 2027. FY2028 OP falls by a third or more.
• China (29% of sales; top customer a China distributor at 12%) faces export controls or price competition from local mounter makers.
• Large M&A destroys value as Fasford did.

Catalysts

What would change the rating

• Upgrade (higher confidence) if Q2 orders are ¥70bn or more and guidance is raised again.
• Downgrade to Hold if Q2 orders fall below ¥60bn (book-to-bill under 1.0), or the stock re-rates above about 18x forward without a further raise.
• Thesis invalidated if management flags order cancellations, double ordering or customer inventory corrections, or if guidance is cut.

Monitoring

Scorecard

Fact-sheet flags

Computed by factsheet.mjs. Each flag is a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

• ▲amberreceivables-outpacing-sales receivables grew 87.8% in 2026/03 (34,798 to 65,341) against sales growth of 41.8%
• iinfonet-cash Net cash of 53,741 in 2026/03 (BS_NET_DEBT -53,741)
• iinfoguidance-revised-up 2027/03 guidance raised on 2026-08-03: sales 211,000 to 244,000, op 43,600 to 60,000, rp 44,300 to 61,100, np 33,000 to 44,000
• iinfoconsensus-rising 2027/03 consensus OP changed +29.3% over 3 months to 55,450
• ▲amberconsensus-below-guidance 2027/03 consensus OP 55,450 is -7.6% vs company guidance
• iinfoper-cheap Forward PER 14.43 vs 1-year mean 17.71 (+1σ 20.49), z -1.18: cheap vs own history

Sources and limitations

• data/6134/2026-10-17/ IFIS snapshot (captured 2026-10-17), and fact sheet data/6134/analysis/2026-10-17/factsheet.md.
• filings/2026-03_FY_短信_20260514.pdf p.4–5 (printed p.2–3). filings/2026-03_FY_説明会_20260514.pdf p.18–22.
• filings/2026-03_FY_有報_20260625.pdf p.12–13 (risks), p.47 (cross-shareholdings), p.90 (major customer).
• filings/2026-03_FY_統合_20260901.pdf p.18–20 (CFO message: impairment, cost of equity, OCF).
• filings/2027-03_Q1_短信_20260803.pdf p.1–12. filings/2027-03_Q1_説明会_20260803.pdf p.4–26.
• ASMPT Q2 2026 press release (2026-07-29).
• Fisco via Investing.com (2026-10-16), on the 15 October sell-off.
• Yahoo! Finance Japan 6315 and 6590 (2026-10-16).
• Limitations:
• The Q2 results date is not confirmed. TDnet and Kabutan were not fetched directly, so the disclosure check after 2026-10-16 relied on web search.
• The FX assumption and sensitivity were not found in the filings read.
• The service and parts share of sales could not be read reliably from the chart text.
• The industry-mix percentages in the Q1 説明会 (p.10) did not extract cleanly, so FY2026/03 shares are used.
• No reliable dated PER was found for ASMPT.
• This is research, not individualised investment advice.